India will receive normal to above normal rain, which will be spatially well distributed over the country during the upcoming Southwest monsoon, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.
Mohapatra was speaking during the release of the second stage long range forecast (LRF) for the Southwest monsoon this year. The monsoon onset over Kerala is most likely to occur on June 3, he said.
The IMD upgraded the country’s seasonal quantitative rainfall to 101 per cent of the long period average (LPA), which is 88 cm (1961-2010). In its first stage, LRF released in early April, the all-India seasonal rainfall was predicted to be 98 per cent of the LPA.
The country receives over 70 per cent rainfall during June to September, which is vital for the kharif season and overall agriculture-based activity.
“There will be normal to above normal rainfall over the Northwest, central and South peninsular India. Whereas, East and Northeast India will experience below normal rainfall during June to September this year,” Mohapatra said.
For the first time, the IMD issued a special forecast for the monsoon core zone — spanning across most of the central India regions between Odisha and Gujarat.
“This rainfed region will receive above normal rainfall during the monsoon, with a possibility of over 106 per cent of LPA,” Mohapatra said.
Each homogeneous region in the country has its own seasonal rainfall in accordance with the LPA. This year, region-wise seasonal rain forecast is 92 to 108 per cent in Northwest India, 94 to 106 per cent in central India, 93 to 107 per cent in South peninsula and below 95 per cent in the Northeast.
Below normal rainfall is expected over east Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh along with some interior regions of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Maharashtra during the four-month season.
In another first, the Met department shared the probable rain during June. Accordingly, Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Telangana will receive normal to above normal rain. Whereas below normal rain is likely over Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, northern Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh this month.
At present, there are neutral El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailing over Pacific Ocean. The ENSO is one of the many dominating ocean factors that influence the Indian summer monsoon.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another key factor playing a significant role in the monsoon, will be in its negative phase till October.
“A negative IOD is normally not favourable for the monsoon, but it is not the only factor controlling the monsoon,” the IMD chief said.