A. Harikumar
The death of veteran Kerala Congress leader R Balakrishna Pillai, who co-founded the party along with late K.M George, a day after the massive defeat of the Congress led UDF in Kerala assembly elections was purely coincidental. But it is symbolic that Pillai – one of the architects of the political coalition of Nairs and Syrian Christians, which propped up the Congress for long in Kerala – passed away at a time when the alliance is losing steam.
Groundbreaking socio-political changes happening in India after the BJP came to power in 2014 and rise of political Islam in Kerala have rendered the existing brand of Congress politics unviable. The signs are ominous for the party. While the social base of the party is eroding, a blame game has started in the party after the poll debacle to pass the buck; heads are likely to be roll in the days ahead. But no amount of punitive action is going to resurrect the Congress in Kerala as the real reason for the defeat is the erosion in party’s social base and not merely the incapability or misdeeds of any leader
Social Base
The Nair-Syrian Christian alliance shaped up in Kerala in1958 during the Liberation Struggle (Vimochana Samaram) organised against the first communist government led by EMS Namboothiripad. Both the middle class communities jumped on the Congress bandwagon to protect their economic and social interests, and the ensuing massive protest brought down the Communist ministry. The coalition gave the Congress a landslide victory in the1960 assembly poll.
Thereafter, a symbiotic relationship developed among the three: Congress Christian Churches and the Nair Service Society (organisation of Nairs). The Kerala Congress which was formed in 1964 cemented, formalised and perpetuated the alliance. KM George was its first president and Balakrishna Pillai its secretary. The combination had a great run in Kerala politics till the recent past. It gained the support of Muslim League also creating a solid vote bank for the Congress and allies.
However the politics started to change by 1990s as social dynamics changed. Inflow of remittance from the Gulf built up the economic power of the Muslim community and their increasing population buttressed their political claims. Soon the idea of Political Islam found its way to the state from the Middle East countering Muslim League’s realpolitik and the harmonious relationship among the supporters of Congress was lost.
Impact of the rise of BJP
When the BJP came to power at the centre in 1998, it had its impact in Kerala too. Slowly Nairs started drifting towards the BJP from the Congress. Even a section of Christians were also not averse to BJP and it was the Nair-Christian combine which helped P.C Thomas of Kerala Congress to win as NDA candidate from the Christian dominated Moovattupuzha Lok Sabha constituency in 2004. However, as the Congress led UPA won the poll in 2004, the vote base soon returned to the Congress fold. The BJP failed to nurture Nair-Christian combine to their advantage. However a section of Nairs continued to be with the BJP and the idea of Hindu unity slowly found many takers in Kerala.
When the BJP under Narendra Modi stormed to power at the centre in 2014 it caused tremors in Kerala politics and society. While more Nairs embraced the BJP, the Christians were averse. The political Islam in Kerala worked hard against BJP to unite minorities and initially Christian Churches also sided with them against Modi. This development helped the Congress and the newly formed minority vote bank acted as a lifeline for the Congress in Kerala when it was sinking nationally.
Rise of the Islamo-left and Hindu alienation
The newly formed Christian-Muslim alliance sounded sustainable at first and it seemed that it will prop up Congress for the time. However, political Islam refused to places all its eggs in Congress basket. Followers of a section of Muslim groups including Jamaath-e-Islami, Popular Front, a Sunni group led by Kanathapuram Aboobacker Musaliyar, etc. Initiated a new flexible strategy which selectively supported CPI (M) and Congress according to their needs. It resulted in the rise of the Islamo-left in the state who are active in the left groups while following radical Islamic policies. This new alliance took away Muslim League votes in many places and added it to the left kitty.
On the other hand, a section of Congress leaders is also feeling that Hindu leaders are being sidelined in the party and they have no future. They point out that only around eight Hindu candidates of the Congress led UDF won the recent assembly polls out of the total of 41 winners of the UDF. Some of the Hindu Congress leaders are accused of being in a covert alliance with the RSS. Congress which survived for long by appeasement of different groups is finding that they can’t run with hare and hunt with hounds any more. The lesson is the failure to call out the communal agenda of different groups has cost Congress dear.
Assembly Poll 2021
The result of Kerala assembly polls 2021 has bared the dilemma of the Congress. The social base of the party has eroded. While a significant number of Nairs, say around 25 percent of their total population, have shifted allegiance to the BJP for good, Christians have come closer to the CPI (M). The entry of Kerala Congress Jose K Mani faction into the Left Democratic Front is a proof of thaw in relations between Communists and the Catholic Church. Moreover, the increasing tensions between Christian and Islamic groups in Kerala have created apprehensions among the Christians against Muslim League, the second biggest partner in the Congress led UDF.
There are reports that Christian groups which control the largest number of educational institutions in Kerala were quite uneasy about the Muslim League getting education portfolio had UDF got power, and voted for the LDF. The rhetoric of the left has changed. They no longer speak against the middle class and are quite sympathetic to the needs of the Chruch. Meanwhile, Christian groups are not averse to aligning with the BJP too. There are many bidders for the Congress voter base now, and if the Congress continues to be weak nationally it will lose more supporters in the coming days.