US President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin of Russia on Tuesday that an invasion of Ukraine would result in heavy economic penalties for him and lead NATO to reposition its troops in Europe, measures that he said would go well beyond the West’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea seven years ago.
In a two-hour, secure video conference that American and Russian officials both described as tense but occasionally pierced by humor, Biden also said an invasion could end Russia’s hopes of completing the Nord Stream II gas pipeline to Europe, which would be a major new source of energy revenue.
It is too early to tell whether the much-anticipated conversation — whose details were hard to elicit, as both the White House and the Kremlin put their spin on it — will alleviate the immediate crisis in Ukraine, where roughly 70,000 Russian troops have massed, with more equipment and personnel arriving every day.
Putin gave no indication of his ultimate intent, American officials said, leaving the world guessing whether he was actually planning an invasion early next year or trying to get the West to pay attention to his demands by manufacturing a crisis.
In a brief video of the opening moments of the call released by Russian state television, Putin said, “Greetings, Mr. President!”
“Good to see you again,” Biden responded warmly, after what appeared to be a brief connection glitch. He lamented that they had not seen each other in person this fall at the Group of 20 summit meeting. But neither side released any video of conversation on the issues at hand.
Not surprisingly, both sides portrayed their leaders as resolute. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said the president was “clear,’’ “direct” and “candid.”
The Russian government, in an unusually detailed description of the encounter, said Putin had warned Biden that Western military activity in and around Ukraine was approaching a “red line” that was threatening Russia’s security.
“There was no finger-wagging, but the president was crystal clear,’’ Sullivan told reporters after the session, which Biden conducted from the White House Situation Room and Putin from his retreat on the Black Sea. Asked for specifics about the consequences facing Russia, Sullivan declined to go into detail.
“I will look you in the eye and tell you, as President Biden looked President Putin in the eye and told him today, that things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now,” Sullivan said, referring to the year Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Virtually no country has recognized the action, and Western powers continue to levy sanctions against Russia for it. But the sanctions have failed in their primary objective: to create enough pain for Russia that it returns the territory.
In recent days, American officials have said that a list of potential penalties being compiled by the Treasury Department, in collaboration with European allies, ranges from blocking Russian companies from access to global capital markets to financial penalties aimed at the Russian elite, especially the oligarchs who have helped finance and support Putin. The most extreme step — one that is still being debated — would be to cut Russia off from the global financial settlement system, called SWIFT, but some European officials have feared that step might provoke too harsh a response.
Sullivan also held out the possibility of “an alternative pathway by which we can make progress on diplomacy,” describing what would be, in essence, a return to a diplomatic process Russia engaged in six years ago — but has largely ignored since.